Calvin Watkins Has Caused Quite the Uproar

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ESPN Dallas reporter Calvin Watkins has officially fanned the flames. For members of the "fire Jon Daniels" camp, a report by Watkins that Yu Darvish, Adrian Beltre, Shin-Soo Choo, and Elvis Andrus have cleared waivers has somehow provided "proof" that Daniels is an idiot and should be fired. Don't believe me?

Among the most egregious things written in the article by Watkins was the following:

“Team officials don’t comment on players clearing waivers, however, the moves are interesting with the Rangers looking for high-quality prospects.”
— Calvin Watkins

I'll just come right out and say it: None of these players are going anywhere. Even on the off chance that one is traded away, they certainly won't be dealt for prospects.

The issue here, I think, is that Calvin Watkins during his career with ESPN has been almost exclusively a football reporter, covering the Cowboys just down the road from the Rangers in Arlington. To that end, he's been very good in that role, only covering baseball, if I remember correctly, while the NFL was locked out during the summer of 2011. Due to Richard Durrett's unfortunate passing back in June, Watkins has been forced into a sort of double duty role, picking up some of the baseball duties for ESPN Dallas.

I don't know if Calvin simply doesn't know this from not covering baseball on a regular basis, or if he was trying to get some site hits for ESPN -- I'm not betting on the latter -- but in no way does the waivers process convey anything "interesting". At this time of year, on an annual basis, most teams run their star players through the waivers process.

The reason they run the players through waivers is because they know with almost-absolute certainty that the players will clear waivers, meaning no team put in a waiver claim. Why is that important? A player that clears waivers is eligible to be traded to any team, excluding any kind of contractual exclusions such as a limited no-trade clause.

So, how do teams know that players won't be claimed? In the case of high-contract players, it would involved significant risk on the part of the claiming team.

Let's throw out a hypothetical scenario. Let's say the Angels place Josh Hamilton on waivers -- a scenario that I'll be surprised if it hasn't actually taken place -- and wait the 48 business hours to see if a team claims him. A team does, and the Angels have 3 options. They can work out a trade with the claiming team, pull Hamilton back off of waivers, or simply let the claiming team assume his contract.

That last possibility is exactly why high-priced players simply don't get claimed. Even if the claiming team believed in Hamilton's ability to turn things around, it's not likely they would want to assuming the rest of this season's salary plus the remaining $89 million that would be owed to him through the 2017 season.

So, with that said, the waiver process is truly a cat-and-mouse ordeal, and we never hear of all players involved in the process due to what is supposed to be a confidential process. Nonetheless, we have a scenario here, much like with Alex Rios several weeks ago, in which it is reported that numerous players have cleared waivers. With Rios, it was a bit more interesting since the Rangers had been rumored to actually have shopped Rios prior to the non-waiver deadline on July 31.

The fact that Darvish, Beltre, Choo, and Andrus have cleared waivers is absolutely much ado about nothing. It simply means that no team claimed them and the Rangers are free to attempt to work a deal with any ball club, should they so desire.

Now, if we hear in the next few days that the Rangers are in negotiations with another club to trade one of those four players, that might be newsworthy. With that said, if you're in the camp that wants to see any such move happen, don't hold your breath. For a player like Darvish to be traded, it would have be a perfect storm of something like an unhappy, but productive star on some other ball club also clearing waivers and enticing the Rangers enough to the point that there might actually be some excess value to be obtained. Other than that, it's not happening. The same goes for the other three guys.

I'm left to believe that Watkins simply hasn't been around baseball enough to know that what seems like an interesting process isn't actually all that interesting, at least 99 percent of the time. Other than simply not understanding that this is a routine process, there's literally no good reason for him to fuel an uproar among an already-divided fan base during a poor season for the Major League club. If you're among those that found yourself ready to jump the Texas front office, just relax. Jon Daniels isn't trying to blow up the Texas Rangers, and he's certainly not looking to do anything stupid. As a matter of fact, by running his stars through waivers, Daniels is actually leaving open the possibility that in the unlikely event that some other organization wants to make a crazy deal that makes sense for Texas, he's able to do so.

Other than that awfully unlikely possibility, there's nothing to see here. Don't jump off the cliff, and pull your hand off of the trigger. Jon Daniels is doing exactly what some in recent weeks have accused him of not doing: his job.

Rougned Odor's Unfortunate Timing

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Over the last half-decade, the Rangers' front office has placed a premium on acquiring talent in the middle of the diamond; that is, middle infielders, center fielders, and Jorge Alfaro (who is the only catcher of real consequence in the farm system).

The infield collection is at various stages of development, but it's deep, a list that includes Jurickson Profar, Rougned Odor, Luis Sardinas, Travis Demeritte, 2014 draftees Ti'Quan Forbes and Josh Morgan, as well as 17 year-olds Yeyson Yrizarri and Michael De Leon, whom they signed internationally as their big bonus babies in 2013.

On the outfield side of things, there's Lewis Brinson (their top pick in the 2013 draft), Nick Williams (their 2nd rounder that year), along with Nomar Mazara and Jairo Beras (who project more as corner outfielders down the road.) 

The lists go on, but it feels superfluous to mention everyone.

As you can see, Texas are deep. Some will wash out -- as is the nature of the prospect universe -- some will be traded, and the rest will be collecting massive paychecks in Arlington. It's a beautiful sport. 

* * * * * *

If Roogie doesn't make you want to wear a fat gold chain then I don't know what will. 

If Roogie doesn't make you want to wear a fat gold chain then I don't know what will. 

Of the whole compendium, to me Rougned Odor is the most interesting. The majority of the aforementioned list are at least two or three years away from meriting serious consideration for the big league club; Jurickson Profar's status as the #1 prospect in baseball has already been proven; Luis Sardinas, the least of Texas's current glut of middle infielders (he, Odor, Profar and Elvis Andrus), looks to be more of a utility player;

Rougned Odor, though. He's very likely to be a second baseman on a lot of playoff teams. We just don't know if that's going to be the Rangers.

From a video game standpoint, the logjam in Texas's infield would be cured with excessive simplicity: Just trade Elvis Andrus. After all, Elvis is on an island within the quartet in making more than the league minimum. Although $15 million AAV isn't star player money, it's still 30 times more than any of Profar/Odor/Sardinas, and that's a significant chunk of paper when put in those terms. 

However, there's more than just money to consider with Elvis. For starters, along with ace Yu Darvish and veteran Adrian Beltre, he is one of the faces of the franchise. (And I don't mean that in a Michael Young sort of way; I mean he is really, really good and justifies the contract he was signed to.) His value to the franchise goes beyond the diamond.

Then there's Jurickson Profar, whom many forget was MLB's top prospect as recently as last year. He hasn't been around during 2014's miserable campaign, but it's not as if the Texas's front office have forgotten about him, and it's foolish to think they would even consider trading him during the offseason -- selling extremely low -- to make room for Odor, who is nowhere near the same prospect class. 

This is why Rougned Odor's timing with the Rangers is so unfortunate, because there aren't a lot of avenues for Texas to travel through that don't hinder the future. With so much talent in the middle infield, it would be easy to drop a cliché like it's a good problem to have, but it's not. It's an actual problem, and problems are bad. 

* * * * * *

The issue I have with the Trade Elvis camp are the amount of unknowns. Since his rookie season in 2009, only Troy Tulowitzki (+28.8 fWAR), Hanley Ramirez (+22.6), Alexei Ramirez (+18.2) and Jose Reyes (+18.0) have generated more Wins Above Replacement than Andrus (+17.5) according to FanGraphs. To replace him with Jurickson Profar at shortstop -- which would be the case if Elvis was moved -- would cost the team defensively, and the Rangers would also be losing defense at second base by replacing Profar with Rougned Odor. 

At the very worst, Andrus is a sure thing, which is something we can't yet say about the duo the organization would be rolling with in his stead. 

Odor brings with him a lot of promise, so much that Dan Szymborski's ZiPS projections for 2014 put Robinson Cano as his player comparison. Although it's nearly impossible to assign a Hall-of-Fame trajectory for any 20 year-old -- unless his name is Mike Trout -- all of Roogie's minor league plate appearances have been thrown into a formula, and that formula spit out a name that happens to be the best 2nd baseman of our generation. That isn't nothing, but it's still difficult to say it's something at this raw stage of Roogie's career.

Rougned Odor was born in 1994, making him the youngest player in MLB, and making me feel like the oldest 24 year-old blogger this side of the Mississippi. In nearly 300 plate appearances, Rougned has held his own, batting a respectable .252/.289/.378 (78 wRC+) while being worth exactly 0.0 fWAR. 

He's been a vague facsimile of what Jurickson Profar was offensively (.234/.308/.336, 75 wRC+) last year in his age-20 season. 

But before we decide to get all crazy and anoint Odor the Rangers opening day second baseman in 2015, consider the sentence that precedes this one: Profar received flack for underperforming in his age-20 season -- probably because he was the #1 prospect in baseball and more was expected earlier on -- and Rougned has basically been given the keys to a starting job, by some/most fans, for accomplishing virtually the same amount. Profar seismically outclasses Odor from a prospect perspective, and him losing a year from an inconsequential teres minor shoulder injury affects him much less than most tend to lead on. His career isn't in jeopardy, and it's still way too premature to slap on him the "injury prone" label. He's fine. 

Profar's presence from the 2014 Rangers is much like the count's boots in Miss Julie: He's always been here without actually, physically being there. It's his existence that puts Rougned Odor's role in Texas in question. 

There are a few ways the Rangers can go about this, but since I've already written at some length about each of them I'll use this section for the (semi) abridged version:

1) The most likely scenario is 2015 opens up with Elvis Andrus at shortstop, Jurickson Profar at second base, and Rougned Odor in Triple-A to help his progression. Since next year figures to be Texas's true all-in season -- given the contract situations of Yu Darvish and Adrian Beltre -- the Andrus-Profar combo up the middle provides the Rangers their best chance to win now.

Odds of becoming reality -- 5:3

2) Trade Elvis Andrus, use Profar at SS and Odor at 2B. This is the fantasy baseball dream; just use the savings from Elvis's contract to help sign one of the top pitchers in free agency, whether it be Max Scherzer, James Shields or Jon Lester. It looks good, ostensibly, but then Texas would be subjecting a 22 year-old Profar and a 21 year-old Odor to be prime contributors during what is supposed to be a competitive season. It's just hard to project either to be more than 2-win players, and that might not be enough to get the Rangers to the dance. 

Odds of becoming reality -- 15:1

3) Trade Rougned Odor as part of a package to acquire a slugging corner outfielder. Is this the offseason Giancarlo Stanton gets traded? How about Carlos Gonzalez? Jason Heyward or Bryce Harper? Probably wishful thinking. To ascertain the type of lineup-altering force the Rangers would want, it would require more than just Roogie; it would likely take him plus either Chi-Chi Gonzalez or Luke Jackson, plus two of Texas's stud minor league outfielders (assuming Jorge Alfaro and Joey Gallo are completely off the table in discussions). By trading Odor, the Rangers would have their middle infield combination in cement for the foreseeable future and end all this speculation coming from me. 

Odds of becoming reality -- 12:1

Arbitrary odds aside, the Rangers have a dilemma. They put themselves in this situation -- partially from having too much quality talent -- but now it's the front office's task to create a resolution. 

Should, however, the club expect to compete in 2015, I have a hard time believing -- regardless of how much promise Jurickson Profar and Rougned Odor bring to the table -- that they will be able to roll out two of the youngest players in MLB at two of the most important positions on the diamond, and succeed right away. Elvis Andrus is a constant; he's really good and we know that we can expect him to be really good in the coming years; Profar's injury has essentially made him an immovable part in this paradigm -- he's going to be here whether or not Andrus or Odor are.

For Rougned, his ascension through the farm system has been rapid. He's going to be a quality major league 2nd baseman... I'm about 85% confident in that. But his arrival to Arlington comes with disappointing timing, as he's the favorite to be the middle infield roster casualty to help make the club better. 

This is going to be a hot-button issue during the offseason, so we might as well get it out of the way now. 

What do you think the Rangers should do? "Fire Jon Daniels" is not an option.

Go!

The Replacements

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While the Rangers were playing the Angels last night, just-called-up Jon Edwards was called in to pitch the top of the 8th inning of a game that, at the time, had the Rangers on the wrong end of a 5-1 score. With his debut, the Rangers came one step closer to a record.

The Rangers have now used 36 different pitchers on the 2014 season, just one shy of the Major League record of 37 set in 2002 by the San Diego Padres. If we assume that, come September, when callups are made, pitchers such as Derek Holland, Luke Jackson, Joseph Ortiz, and Spencer Patton end up pitching for the Rangers this season, then it's reasonable to guess that the Rangers will not only beat, but shatter the record. And we're only halfway through the month of August.

It was around the same time that I had a thought: With the Rangers using so many players this season, what was the combined WAR of the current 25-man roster last season, in 2013?

So I logged onto FanGraphs, perused the records, and added it all up. The result? A 23.3 WAR ball club. If we take the generally accepted 47.7 win replacement-level team, extrapolate the figures over to this season, we come up seeing the 2014 Rangers as a 71-win baseball team.

Now, there are a few other things worth noting. First, and most importantly, Yu Darvish isn't on the current roster because he's on the DL. He's been worth 4.2 WAR this season. Assuming he comes back on August 25 as Ron Washington said today, I think it's safe to say he'll come in right around 5.0 WAR. In 2013, Shin-Soo Choo was worth 5.2 WAR, whereas this season, he's been worth -0.1 WAR. Also, Alex Rios was worth 3.1 WAR, and has been worth 0.1 WAR.

It's interesting that, yes there have been injuries, but two outfielders that were planned to be major parts of the 2014 attack have declined a combined 8.3 WAR, with 40 games still left on the schedule.

In any case, back to the original point, if we add in 5.0 WAR for Yu Darvish and -- whether due to injury or not -- subtract out the 2013 production of both Choo and Rios (5.2 WAR and 3.1 WAR) to reflect replacement-level values in 2014, that actually brings the Rangers down to being a 20 WAR ball club. That figure would put the Rangers at about 68 wins on the season if we round up.

The Rangers, currently sitting at 47-75, hold a winning percentage of .385, which would put the team on pace to win 62 games.

In other words, whether you like WAR-based statistics, they're strikingly accurate, and almost paint the perfect picture of the current roster. Of course, just looking at the 2013 WAR of the current roster has its inherent flaws, but I felt it was interesting to point out nonetheless.

There have been many this season that have called for Jon Daniels to be fired, complained about Nolan Ryan no longer "running things", and I've even seen comments after the news of A.J. Preller's hiring as San Diego's GM that suggested that it was Preller and Ryan that did all the heavy lifting to build a winning organization, and that somehow Daniels was sitting on his hands the entire time. Of course, I disagree whole-heartedly with those assertions. Everyone is entitled to their opinion certainly, but for those that have claimed that the roster was never set up competitively before Spring Training, I think it's only fair to look at the numbers and realize that, yes, injuries have played the most influential part to the Rangers' demise this season.

It's easy to sensationalize and talk about extremes when the team is really good or really, really awful, but the fact remains that, when fully healthy, it's a fair assumption that the Texas Rangers are much more competitive in 2015. Even better? A lot of young players are getting valuable Major League experience, and quite possibly auditions to be considered when Spring Training rolls around next year.

None of this makes the current losing easier to accept -- unless you're one that can get excited about the collectively bargained ramifications that come with being the absolute worst team in baseball -- but it does offer a glimmer of hope for the future other than just saying they'll be better next year just because.

And when the farm system holds the best winning percentage of any of the 30 Major League franchises, there is more than blind optimism lending itself to the cause of watching our favorite baseball team ascend to contention once again.

ESPN Writer Questions Yu Darvish's Toughness

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If you've been paying attention, there is currently a running theme on One Strike Away: Yu Darvish, and the vital importance of Yu Darvish to the Texas Rangers organization. I make no bones about it, and I'm sure I can speak for Brandon and any other reasonable fan of this club when I say: 

Yu is the most critical member of this club, and it's not even close. 

Unfortunately, since this is such a slow-paced, dreadful season, local writers are starved for any quasi-dramatic angle they can take advantage of. When it became apparent that, yesterday, Yu Darvish's MRI checked out negative -- that is, no structural damage to his ulnar-collateral ligament -- ESPN Dallas's Jean-Jacques Taylor decided it would be an opportune time to question Yu's physical/mental/moral fortitude, going so far as to say he's left his teammates "hanging". 

I could continue this diatribe, but the idiocy of the article pretty much speaks for itself:

General manager Jon Daniels, a smart dude at the helm of a forgettable season, made a huge mistake when he provided the pitcher with a free pass to quit on the season. [...]

If he's hurt, then by all means, shut him down. But if he can pitch, then he needs to be on the mound. Every trainer will tell you there's a difference between pain and injury. [...]

It's no fun to play in the stifling Texas heat on a team poised to lose 100 games, but that's what leaders do. That's what aces should do. [...]

See, it doesn't matter if the Rangers are more than 20 games out of first place. Yu should be playing for the other 24 guys. Instead, he's left them hanging. 

Okay, so if I'm reading this correctly, then (a) Jon Daniels goofed up by offering Darvish a "free pass" to quit on the season, (b) Yu isn't a "leader" because the Rangers are on pace to lose 100 games and he isn't out there to make sure it's not 96, instead, and (c) he's leaving his teammates "hanging" because he isn't taking the ball every fifth day. 

Stupid, stupid, stupid. 

For about a month now (if not longer) I've argued that it doesn't make sense for Yu Darvish to be pitching anymore in 2014, and when news broke Wednesday afternoon that he was going on the disabled list, the first thought I had in my head was it's about f---ing time. 

Luckily, there is nothing wrong with his right arm. If there was I would've felt like a total dumbass. But this is where we are in the season; shutting Darvish down, which is expected from this DL stint, offers the best-case scenario for the Rangers: It limits Yu's exposure to some freak, possibly year-long injury that could affect the team in 2015 (and beyond), and Texas will replace him with a Robbie Ross-type -- or reasonable facsimile thereof -- which will generate more losses down the stretch, thus helping the Rangers procure the #1 pick in next year's draft. 

I hate to sound like such a masochist, but the current Collective Bargaining Agreement rewards failure -- particularly being the worst of the worst -- incalculably more than mediocrity.

This is the flaw in Taylor's ridiculous article, that using Darvish in the rotation down the stretch somehow benefits the Rangers. It doesn't. Aside our personal enjoyment, it's essentially been three months since any of Yu's starts meant anything. 

Taylor speaks like Texas's ace has some twisted obligation to his teammates, but I'm stranded here thinking, like, what teammates? Aside Adrian Beltre, Elvis Andrus, Shin-Soo Choo, and maybe Alex Rios or Leonys Martin, Darvish won't be playing with the majority of these scrubs in 2015. And what is the end goal for the Rangers? So they'll finish with 98 losses instead of 100? I think not. 

Practically speaking, the net-gain of having Darvish throw another 50 innings in 2014 does not justify the risk that entails, elbow inflammation or no elbow inflammation. The Rangers are a cagey organization, and Yu Darvish -- with the protection of speaking through a translator despite knowing a fair amount of english -- is a cagey individual. From a rational perspective, it stands to reason that the front office and Darvish, as well as his agent, have very likely had these discussions internally, how they want to approach the final month and a half of a season that no longer means anything. 

For the Rangers, Darvish's health supersedes any player in the organization; he is the lifeline between the team going for it or not going for it in 2015. It's not a matter of toughness or some innate ability to be a leader, because Yu's masterful artistry on the mound speaks for itself. 

It's been documented thoroughly, more so in 2012 and '13, that the surrounding D-FW media have a preoccupation with needling Yu Darvish by any means necessary. It used to be that he couldn't hold one-run leads -- because every pitcher is clearly supposed to hold every 1-0 lead he's given -- then it was his failure to throw complete games, because apparently every ace is supposed to throw nine innings a start, no questions asked.

I don't get it, but I'm not supposed to make sense of things that don't make any sense. 

Maybe it's due to the fact that he's foreign, that he doesn't speak english to the media, that makes him such an easy target. It is, after all, still a good ol' boy band of traditional writers. Or maybe it's just because Yu Darvish is really good and these are the types of articles that get lots of clicks so bloggers like me get all worked up and write something about them. 

If that's the case, then, well done, Mr. Taylor. I took the bait. 

Edit: Yu Darvish will pitch August 25th, and Brandon has already written about it. Still, it doesn't change the stupidity of Taylor's article. 

Ron Washington: Yu Darvish Will Pitch August 25th

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Had your daily dose of Yu Darvish news yet? No? Good, because over at the DMN site, Evan Grant has a short post up in which Ron Washington is quoted on the short-term plans regarding Yu Darvish and his status for the remainder of the season.

It’s our intention he will pitch again. I expect him to pitch for us on [August] the 25th. I have no indication that it would be more than 15 days. Let’s let the process work and see where it goes.

So, at least according to the manager, Darvish will not be shut down for the season as many have speculated. Could it be smoke and mirrors? Of course, and yet while the idea of shutting Darvish down for the season makes sense in theory, it never made much practical sense to me from the perspective of Darvish himself.

On Monday, Eric pointed out some of the details of Yu's contract as it relates to his Cy Young candidacy and potential free agency. To me, that Cy Young clause in his contract always seemed to be the reason why Yu Darvish would potentially be hesitant to allow the Rangers to shut him down for the season.

By shutting him down now, the Rangers would essentially be pulling Darvish out of the running for the AL Cy Young Award. While it's pretty likely he's not going to win the award regardless, it's the clause that allows for him finishing 2nd-4th in the balloting between now and the end of the 2016 season that offers Darvish the maximum earning potential. That is to say, right now, he's underpaid compared to what his market value would be on the free agent market. The sooner he can become a free agent, the higher his earning potential. The Rangers could very well try to extend him before that becomes a reality, but that's not the issue here.

I'm just not sure that one of the game's best pitchers, who knows he is one of the game's best pitchers, is OK with the organization he pitches for essentially cutting off his chance at at least finishing in the top 4 of the Cy Young balloting this season.

By my math -- or just me looking at the calendar -- if Yu Darvish were to return to the rotation on August 25th, that start would be the beginning of a string of seven likely starts to finish out the season, assuming he were to take the ball every fifth game. Even if you project Darvish to be outside of the top 4 pitchers in the American League right now, given recent performance, a healthy Yu Darvish is going to be a good bet to, over the course of seven starts, put himself right back into the conversation. At the very least, I'm not betting against him getting back into the top 4.

As always, I could be completely wrong on this. Perhaps the Rangers have already approached their star pitcher about working out an extension prior to free agency, and perhaps there's a feeling from both sides that, at some point, a deal will get done. If that's the case, then it absolutely makes sense for Darvish to bend to the organization's whim. If not, however, it's never made much financial sense for Yu Darvish to do anything but go out and maximize his value, even if the realization of that value is still just over two years away.

To be clear, I'm not implying that there's any kind of rift between the front office and Yu Darvish. I don't think that could be further from the truth. It very well may be that the Rangers would like for Darvish to stay on the bench until next season. With that said, I don't think there's going to be a huge stink made if Darvish doesn't necessarily want to do that, and at this point, I will still be surprised if Yu Darvish is actually done for the season.

I'd imagine we won't really know until August 25th rolls around.