Why it's hard to get excited about Torii Hunter

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Per everyone, everywhere, the Rangers are "pushing" to sign free agent DH/OF Torii Hunter, a rumor that shouldn't come as a huge surprise. Faced with limited resources this winter, Texas are faced with something of a budget crises, and players like Hunter are within their price range in an extremely thin market for hitting.

A couple weeks ago I broached the idea of Torii coming to the Rangers -- something I've been submitted to but haven't developed any enthusiasm over -- though, even given its likelihood, I'm not resigned to hating the deal just yet. I'll stand by what I said on November 16th:

[For] 2015, which is the only year that really matters in this context, it's probably going to take around $8 million to ascertain his services. If, as I imagine, his focus is to win a World Series, the Rangers can sell him on that idea, but I doubt Jon Daniels is cunning enough sign him for closer to $5-$6 million, which is what I think he's truly worth at this stage of his career. 

If we use that as the vague benchmark, what I'm really saying is this: If Texas could sign Torii Hunter for $6 million, I like the deal; if it's $8 million, I'm ambivalent; if it's $10 million, I don't like it. 

The thing is, Torii is only a shell of what he used to be. In his last two years with Detroit he generated a composite triple slash line of .295/.327/.456 (115 wRC+) with next to no value running the bases and an absurdly bad -35.2 runs in the outfield. His bat is in decline, and that's the only skill he has left that the Rangers would be paying for, which is why signing him only makes sense if he was to be the primary designated hitter, with maybe 40 starts in right field. 

For what it's worth, Dan Szymborski ran his ZiPS projection for Torii Hunter in Texas, and it came out .273/.303/.427 (96 OPS+), worth 0.0 zWAR as an outfielder, +0.2 zWAR as a DH. Essentially, ZiPS sees Hunter the same way he's being described in each of the last two articles I've written of him: a replacement-level player with a league-average bat. 

But maybe production isn't the entirety of why the Rangers want him in Texas. Last night Evan Grant wrote about how "the fit is undeniable" with Hunter, noting that "there is significant value in what Hunter brings to the fabric of the team. New manager Jeff Banister is trying to bring a culture of toughness and inclusiveness to the clubhouse. He wants to bring the leadership council concept that he and Clint Hurdle built in Pittsburgh to help players take more ownership and accountability."

It sounds a lot like having Michael Young 2.0 back in the clubhouse. If that's worth $8 million, so be it if that's their line of thinking. 

Part of what depresses me, personally, about having Torii Hunter in Texas has less to do with his (lack of) on-field production, but more so that the trajectory of the offseason will be set in stone if he gets signed. T.R. Sullivan writes that the Rangers are close to agreeing to terms on a contract with Colby Lewis and, assuming the same happens with Hunter over the next couple of days, Texas will have likely committed between $12-$14 million -- 60%-70% of the expected budget this winter -- for two post-prime players who don't figure to add a ton in the win department next year. 

As it stands the Mariners and Angels, and maybe Oakland, too, have more complete rosters than do the Rangers. The West has the potential of being the strongest division in baseball again in 2015, and, with how it looks now, Texas will have to part with some of its gifted prospects on the farm to make up the necessary wins.

Baseball America Unveils Top-10 Rangers Prospects

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Baseball America has released its top-10 Texas Rangers prospects for 2015, with Ben Badler offering a writeup, to boot. Below is the list:

1. Joey Gallo, 3B

2. Jake Thompson, RHP

3. Jorge Alfaro, C

4. Nomar Mazara, OF

5. Nick Williams, OF

6. Chi-Chi Gonzalez, RHP

7. Luis Sardinas, SS/2B

8. Ryan Rya, OF/3B

9. Luis Ortiz, RHP

10. Josh Morgan, SS/2B

There are a few surprises here to consider. For starters, Jake Thompson being rated as highly as #2 suggests a fond opinion from BA; I thought it was a foregone conclusion that Gallo and Alfaro would be ranked 1st and 2nd. That Baseball America has him above (what most view as) premium prospects like Alfaro and Mazara leads one to believe they view him as better than a number three starter down the road. 

Nick Williams, too, is a surprise being rated so highly, which is something I mentioned the other day when Calvin Watkins had him 4th on his top-10 list. Watkins doesn't look as crazy anymore. I still don't see it, but it's worth mentioning. 

I'm also a bit perplexed as to where Luis Sardinas is ranked, or, really, that he is ranked at all. As Jamey Newberg writes, "I didn’t include Sardinas on my own top 72 list since he exhausted his rookie status in 2014..." For a middle infielder whose main tools revolve around supreme defense and good wheels, I figured not having a real bat to speak of would omit him from these sort of lists. 

The most surprising non-top-10's have to include Luke Jackson, who was #3 on Watkins' list, hard-throwing reliever Corey Knebel and outfielder Lewis Brinson. 

This is an interesting list, but I would encourage you to check out Badler's writeup of the overall state of the Rangers organization. It's really good.

Dayn Perry Offers Scorching Hot Rangers Take

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Dayn Perry is a baseball writer for CBS Sports dot com, and someone whose opinion I hold in high regard. 

Yesterday, Perry gave a particularly bleak outlook for the Rangers looking into the future, noting, among other things, "they'll be paying [Prince] Fielder $114 million for his deep decline phase," Shin-Soo Choo owning "one of the five worst contracts in the game," and Elvis Andrus's "ill-advised pact, which will pay him through 2023."

Jeez. Say it ain't so, Dayn.

Now, it isn't like this is the first time we have come across this line of thinking; if it were Randy Galloway or some reactionary national columnist responding to Texas's miserable 2014 campaign, it wouldn't be worth the space I'm writing on. Dayn Perry, though -- to put it colloquially -- has street cred. The guy knows his baseball and doesn't mess around with traditional school of thought. 

On the one hand I'm taken aback, but that's probably an emotional response more than anything. This is my favorite baseball team he is talking about. I thought the consensus among those with two eyes was that last season was an aberration for the Rangers and they'll be back on track once half their roster isn't injured. But, that Perry is attacking Texas where it really hurts -- not through injuries, mind you -- and directing his lens through the contracts of Fielder/Choo/Andrus being albatrosses, is a fully rational criticism.

With that said, I disagree with him. 

Yes, Prince Fielder's deal is an anchor. The Rangers owe $114 million on his contract through 2020, an average annual value of $19 million. At the current price of WAR, he has to produce about 18 wins over the next six years to justify the deal, roughly 3 WAR/season. It's realistic he never makes it there, but I'm not ready to write off his career after an injury-plagued 178 plate appearances in Texas last season. That, and the Rangers have proven they don't need a first baseman to make it to the World Series. (If they can get there with Mitch Moreland and Michael Young in consecutive years, they can make it with anybody.)

Shin-Soo Choo, too, was hurt in 2014. He had a bum ankle and got bone spurs removed from his elbow almost immediately after his season ended. Perry contends: In essence, they're paying Choo as though his post-prime spike season of 2013 was sustainable. It wasn't, and he somewhat predictably came hurtling back to earth in 2014.

That isn't a fair statement. Through May 6th -- Choo's only fully healthy month-plus of the season -- he batted .370/.500/.554 (194 wRC+), which, although not reflective of what we should expect from him by any reasonable measure moving forward, is more indicative of his capabilities than the .213/.298/.331 (75 wRC+) triple slash line he produced after that date, post-injury. The Rangers are going to eat a lot of money on his contract over its last couple seasons, but that was the original point: They're paying him for the short-term, for their championship window. 

Elvis Andrus remains one of the more polarizing Rangers, if for nothing else that he isn't an offensive specimen and for some people are shocked by this fact. I've written it numerous times that Texas isn't paying Andrus to be an impact force in the lineup. They invested in him for everything other than his offense. Some look at $120 million like it's a lot of money, but stretched over eight years, it really isn't. Especially not now.

Still only 26, Elvis is getting into his money seasons ($15 million AAV) where he is being paid as a +2.5-win shortstop. He is never going to hit even 10 home runs in a season, nor will he drive in as many as 80 runs. That doesn't make him a bad investment. Over the last two years Andrus has delivered basement-level offensive production (.267/.321/.332 [79 wRC+]), and even that has been worthy of +4.1 fWAR.

In 2018 and 2019 Andrus has opt-out clauses in his contract; there's a far greater chance he exercises one of them to cash in more money, as opposed to the common logic -- that he is some sort of anvil dragging down Jon Daniels and Texas's payroll. 

Dayn Perry is an exceptionally bright man with valid points where the Rangers are concerned. In this instance, though, he misses the boat. Money is an issue for Texas this winter, but with the FSSW television money flowing in it's less of a problem than it would be for most teams in MLB. 

Also to keep in mind is where the Rangers sit on the win curve. What Prince Fielder and Shin-Soo Choo do on the field in 2019 and 2020 is less important than what they do in 2015, and '16, and '17, where Yu Darvish is under contract and Derek Holland and Martin Perez follow. 

There's a chance Texas look ugly by the time Fielder and Choo's contracts are ready to expire. But Jon Daniels acquired them knowing that full well. They're here to win a World Series before Yu Darvish leaves town, something that will justify all the money they won't be worth way down the road. 

Some Thoughts on Oakland's Trade of Josh Donaldson

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So there are some interesting things going on in baseball tonight. While those things don't directly involve the Rangers, it's interesting nonetheless, and the ripple effects may very well end up reflecting in the AL West standings in 2015 (and possibly beyond).

According to Susan Slusser, Ken Rosenthal, Jeff Passan, and others, Josh Donaldson has been traded from Oakland to Toronto in exchange for Brett Lawrie, Kendall Graveman, Sean Nolin, and Franklin Barreto. According to Passan, it's a done deal.

Donaldson has been among the more valuable 3rd basemen in the game over the past two seasons, generating 14.1 fWAR in 2013 and 2014 combined. For my money, he should have been the Gold Glove winner at 3rd base in the American League, and was arguably the most valuable player on Oakland's ball club. Furthermore, he's been a perfect example of how misleading batting "average" can be, as he put up .255 in 2014, yet had a wRC+ of 129, good for 4th in all of baseball on the season. Combined with his skill with his glove, Donaldson would definitely be in any conversation about the most valuable players at his position, a discussion that would also have to include Adrian Beltre.

For Toronto, the deal makes it clear that they intend to contend in 2015. After signing Russell Martin, the direction was fairly clear, but in acquiring Donaldson, they figure to have a very potent offense with a decent amount of pop in it.

For Oakland, however, the deal makes much less sense to me on the surface. Donaldson isn't eligible for free agency until after the 2018 season, so with four more years of club control, trading him would seem to indicate that Oakland is in full rebuilding mode. That was my initial thought, and while I tried to somewhat temper myself from knee-jerking, I'm definitely not the only one. Joe Sheehan and Susan Slusser offered up some thoughts of their own on Twitter.

Sheehan, of course, is a very well-respected writer, and as Eric has noted many times, his progressive-thinking approach to the game has made his opinions worth reading. Slusser, an A's beat writer, of course providing more damning comments, as it would appear that Oakland's players view the situation the same why I did initially.

Rebuilding isn't something new to Oakland, of course. There's a reason Moneyball gained fame in the mainstream, and so there's reason to believe that much of this is money-driven like it has been in the past. Then you've got the stadium situation that has apparently stalled revenues a bit as the A's have been unable to get a move approved to the San Jose area. Either way, their ball club spent most of last season on top of the world prior to a late-season slump, and while trading Yoenis Cespedes for Jon Lester seemed to indicate they were going all-in for 2014, I didn't ever get the feeling they'd scrap the whole thing in the offseason.

After signing Billy Butler, I figured the A's would simply retool a bit and give it another run in 2015. Now, well, I don't know what to think. While it's clear that they're a ball club now in rebuilding mode, I don't have a good inkling as to why that may be, but I suspect others smarter than myself will offer their thoughts in the coming days.

For Texas fans, beyond the simple feeling of relief at not having to face Donaldson as often, it should also be noted that this should further solidify that the Rangers aren't in rebuilding mode after a disastrous season in 2014. If that were the case, these are the type of moves you'd expect to see, and thus far, we haven't seen any indication of that. In fact, there's every indication that ownership and the front office are looking for ways to improve and solidify the roster. So if you take nothing else from this, at least take note of two organizations that are currently on two different tracks, and be glad that your team isn't the one trading players like Adrian Beltre.

Quick Analysis of Calvin Watkins's Top-10 Rangers Prospects

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Heading into 2015, the Rangers -- along with teams like Houston, Chicago (NL) and Boston -- carry one of the deepest farm systems in baseball. Headlined by names like Joey Gallo, Jorge Alfaro and Nomar Mazara at the top, Texas are flush mostly in position players and relief pitcher prospects, with the occasional #3 starter here and there. 

Calvin Watkins has a nice little feature this offseason, ranking his top-10 Rangers prospects with some quotes here and there from various scouting services. It's a crude list to be sure, but at least Watkins is trying. 

Anyway, here are his top eight, in descending order:

10. Corey Knebel 

9. Travis Demeritte 

8. Lewis Brinson

7. Nomar Mazara

6. Jake Thompson

5. Chi-Chi Gonzalez

4. Nick Williams

3. Luke Jackson

That I am no rocket scientist notwithstanding, I'm going to step out on a limb and guess Jorge Alfaro is #2 and Joey Gallo will be #1. Please forgive my presumptive nature. On the whole it isn't a terrible list, which is really to say a lot of names are there that we know, albeit completely misplaced. 

Joey Gallo and Jorge Alfaro, in either order, deserve to be the top-2 players in the system. Neither are without quite a bit of risk, but even fulfilling basement-level promise they each figure to be in the major leagues for a while. If they turn out to realize their potential, both are All Star-caliber regulars. 

Only 19, Nomar Mazara had a breakthrough 2014 campaign, hitting .264/.358/.470 (130 wRC+) with 19 HRs in Low-A before jumping High-A altogether. He ended his season mashing Double-A pitching to the tune of a .306/.381/.518 (157 wRC+) triple slash line in spite of being the youngest player in the Texas League. It was only about 100 plate appearances, so it's nothing to completely freak out over, but Mazara should find himself as a consensus top-3 prospect in the organization heading into 2015. 

Luke Jackson and Nick Williams are jokes being ranked 3rd and 4th, respectively. Jackson, a hard-throwing right-hander with shaky control and average secondary offerings, will likely end up in the bullpen at some point, severely hindering his future value. Williams is a bit more of a conundrum, because he's always had the physical tools, but there's a good chance his true talent level will never actualize due to his excessively bad approach at the plate. In about 1,200 career minor league plate appearances he holds a K/UIBB ratio of 232/54; as the pitching grows more advanced at the upper levels, his reckoning will be swift unless he drastically alters his ability to get on base. 

Looking at this through the lens of WAR -- something I am wont to do -- it's difficult not to have RHPs Chi-Chi Gonzalez and Jake Thompson ranked squarely behind the top-3, if not higher depending on the beholder. Number three starters don't exactly grow on trees, even though that's not sexy to hear, and if that's all either of these two pitchers turn into that will provide supreme value to the Rangers heading into the next half-decade. Thompson, whom the Rangers acquired along with Knebel from the Tigers in the Joakim Soria trade, has the upside to be better than that, while Gonzalez is your prototypical example of a low-ceiling/high-floor rotation stabilizer. Remember, pitching is still the end-all in baseball.

Lewis Brinson is my favorite prospect on this list, because he's yet to gain a ton of notoriety among the casual observer. He's known as an exceptional defensive center fielder -- so he's going to have a job in the big leagues as a 4th outfielder if worst comes to worst -- but also provides prodigious power potential. Center field is a lot like catching and playing middle infield in that defense is the priority; if a guy can hit on top of that, his value skyrockets. Brinson is someone I've followed closely since he was drafted, and I look forward to a breakout 2015 season. 

Not listed are guys like Ryan Cordell, Keone Kela, Andrew Faulkner, Alec Asher, Doobie Herrera, Pat Cantwell, Michael De Leon and a slew of others at various stages of development with a chance of reaching the majors down the road. The Rangers are pretty loaded. 

Of course, we can't forget that the goal is not to have all these players on the Rangers one day; that's not really the point. The purpose of every farm system is merely to better the big league roster by one means or another. If they make it, that's great. But some -- or many -- of these guys will be used as trade chips to net Texas major league talent from other organizations.