The Rangers are 30 games below .500

For the second night in a row, the Royals defeated Texas 6-3. 

Expected 2015 rotation member, Nick Tepesch, had his first rocky outing in over a month, where he surrendered 5 runs on 9 hits in 4.1 IP against the Blue Jays on July 20th. Since then -- heading into tonight -- he was riding a four-start stretch where he carried a 2.77 ERA over 26.0 innings, which included three quality starts and the other, allowing no runs on 6 hits in 5.2 innings. So, basically, Nick has been doing alright for himself of late. 

Tonight, though, he gave up 6 runs on 7 hits, as well as three costly walks in 6.1 innings on the bump. 

Oh well. 

Shin-Soo Choo led off the game with a solo HR, his 13th of the season, and Adrian Beltre and Leonys Martin pitched in with two hits apiece. Other than that, not much happened.

Leonys Martín, Enigma

Editor's note: This post was written before Friday night's 6-3 loss to the Royals.

Philosophically, I have a hard time putting equal stock in the numbers during such a poor, uncompetitive Rangers season. Since the end of May Texas haven't had anything to play for, and although it's unsupportable by statistical evidence --  therefore invalidating my claim -- my gut feeling is several regulars on this year's club would have superior offensive stats if the Rangers weren't so hopelessly godawful. 

For those who do have something to play for, like Rougned Odor or Nick Tepesch or Shawn Tolleson, for instance, this theory doesn't apply. They take the field today to prove themselves worthy of doing the same tomorrow, and 2015, and so on. This isn't about them. 

It's a defeatist perspective, sure, one we obviously wouldn't want to believe is the truth -- and it may not be for all I know -- but at the end of the day (because clichés are awesome) baseball players are human beings like the rest of us; they aren't immune to natural motivating factors that affect everybody. 

I got it. See?

For the context of this article, though, I'm focusing on Leonys Martin, if for nothing else that his underachievement in 2014 has seemed to slip beneath the radar more so than other, more prominent (and well-paid) Rangers. (I'm looking at you, Shin-Soo Choo and Elvis Andrus.)

With an extreme small sample size disclaimer, over his last 31 plate appearances Martin has batted .500/.516/.533 (193 wRC+), propelling his August triple slash line up to a punchless .300/.333/.317 (74 wRC+) in 64 PAs.

(In terms of weighted runs created [wRC+], 100 is considered average. Each point below 100 is below league-average, and the further it deviates above 100 is better than league-average, and so on. A player with a 120 wRC+ is 20% better than the rest of the league, whereas a hitter with an 80 wRC+ is 20% worse, for example.)

As a minor leaguer, predominantly between 2011 and 2012, Leonys proved himself an outstanding offensive performer. At Double-A in '11 he batted .348/.435/.571, and, the following season at Triple-A Round Rock, he provided an equally (if not more) impressive .359/.422/.610 clip. Even with the expected regression that comes from jumping to MLB competition, Martín appeared to possess the pedigree to be a 4-win big league outfielder right out of the chute. 

Instead, he's been nothing close. In just north of 1,000 big league plate appearances -- so we aren't talking about the typical small sample size vagaries -- spanning the last two seasons, Leonys has mustered a mere .260/.313/.375 (85 wRC+) triple slash line, showing less of an ability to make contact, get on base, or hit for much of any power. For lack of a better explanation, he simply hasn't at all resembled the player he was on the farm. 

This isn't to say he's not valuable; over the last two years he's been one of the better center fielders in baseball according to the defensive metrics. FanGraphs' Ultimate Zone Rating says Martin has been +16.3 runs better than league average between '13-'14, and Baseball Reference suggests he's created +29 defensive runs saved. He patrols a premium defensive position, and he excels at it. His glove will keep him in baseball for the foreseeable future.

His bat is a problem, though, especially as we churn towards the franchise's critical 2015 season. In two full years, offensively Martin has been exposed as a platoon player. 

Against righties, he's hit .277/.333/.412 (101 wRC+), a line you would take any day of the week for a plus defensive center fielder. 

Meanwhile, against same-handed pitchers, the story changes; Martin has hit an abysmal .213/.256/.271 (39 wRC+).

This creates an interesting dilemma for the Rangers moving forward. While his glove is top notch -- proven by the fact that Leonys Martin has basically been a two-win player each of the last two years in spite of being a below-average hitter -- after awhile a spade is a spade. Even with the likely additions of Prince Fielder and Jurickson Profar to the 2015 roster, Texas still appear at least one bat short of being an effective offense.

Generally clubs see left-handed starters once every four games, so it's not as if the Rangers' future rides solely on Leonys Martin's ability to hit southpaws, but in an extremely competitive American League West, where all of Oakland, Anaheim and Seattle should figure to be in the thick of it in 2015, as well as Houston's inevitable insurgence into the discussion, Texas need to improve at even the most marginal of places.

There are larger concerns moving forward than finding a platoon partner for Leonys in center field, but at the least it's an obvious place to start.

Thursday Morning Open Thread: Four Questions

1. With a win in yesterday's early-afternoon game in Miami, Texas managed to win 5-4. With a 49-77 record, the Rangers now find themselves a full game into last place in all of baseball, with the Rockies being the next-to-worst team by winning percentage. In the AL West, the Astros are 4.5 games up on Texas. Given that it's looking more and more likely that Houston will finish ahead of Texas in the division, what kind of chances would you give the Rangers to finish the season behind the Rockies and lock up the worst record in Major League Baseball?
2. Neftali Feliz, while earning another save yesterday, wasn't exactly sharp, leaving too many 87-89 mph meatballs up over the plate. How comfortable are you with the Rangers sticking with Feliz moving forward and giving him a chance to show that he's one of those guys that needs two full years to recover from Tommy John surgery?
3. According to Jon Heyman of CBS Sports, Neal Cotts was claimed on revocable waivers by what we can only assume to be a contending team. The Rangers will have until Friday to work out a deal with the claiming team, which is, as of yet, unidentified. With the obvious option to pull him off of waivers if an enticing deal doesn't materialize, what kind of return would you like to see Texas get in exchange for Cotts, and what team would you guess put in the claim on the lefty reliever?
4. We're almost to the point of the season in which September callups will get a chance to play with the big club for awhile. One of the more enticing possibilities I saw thrown around on Twitter by Jamey Newberg, among others, is calling up Ryan Rua to get some playing time in the outfield. Since getting called up to AAA Round Rock, Rua has amassed 201 plate appearances with an OPS of .854. Which guys on the farm would you like to see get some action in Arlington during the month of September?

These are not very key times for Yu Darvish

The purpose of One Strike Away is not to rail against the local D-FW media. However, these writers have a responsibility to inform their (mostly casual) reading audience of the truth, and when they fail it's the role of unprofessional bloggers (like myself) to clean it up. 

You can thank me later. 

Today Calvin Watkins -- that guy Brandon wrote about last night -- offered up another flummoxing post questioning Yu Darvish's commitment to the Texas Rangers. 

In it, he mentions:

This is mild inflammation and the Rangers don’t want to push Darvish into something that would hurt him in the long term. Darvish needs to show the club he can pitch through some discomfort, especially if games are meaningful. 

The Rangers have the worst record in Major League Baseball, so.

But then he keeps writing, because what the hell? ESPNDallas has quotas.

But Darvish should let the club have more control over what's needed for him. He needs to have better communication with the front office and the manager to make things smoother. He just decided it was best to head to the DL, and it raised questions regarding his commitment to the club. 

The last sentence is the most egregious, the idea that Darvish "just decided" to go to the disabled list, as if it was under his control. This is false.

Today the Dallas Morning News posted a transcript from a recent Jon Daniels radio interview, where Daniels explicitly says:

This is our call, I don’t want him pitching right now. I don’t want him to take a risk to get hurt.

Is Watkins being fed bad information? The possibility is there, obviously, but from the angles he's taken in recent articles it looks like he's just throwing whatever he can against the wall to see what sticks. If he was Randy Galloway or Mac Engel, this would be a forgivable offense, because everyone knows their job is to troll the fan base by any means necessary. 

With Calvin Watkins, it just seems like he doesn't have a clue what baseball is about. It's not a matter of players being "tough," pitching through pain; there's so much more to consider. The Rangers have a huge stake in Yu Darvish's right arm, and it benefits neither the team nor the player to risk health when the team is 25-plus games out of first place. 

These games aren't meaningful at all. They are the exact opposite of meaningful.

In related news, Evan Grants writes that Ron Washington has "backed off" his original timeline where he said Darvish would start August 25th in Seattle. I'm so not surprised by this good news. 

Whether Yu Darvish has mild inflammation in his right arm or not, the Rangers are so far removed from meaningful baseball games that it's stupid. Questioning Darvish's commitment is not only unfair, it's just flat-out not the truth. 

The Rangers are 48-77

You know, as far as extra-inning walk-off losses go, this one wasn't all that bad. Some thoughts:

• Miles Mikolas wasn't great tonight, but he was good enough to keep the Rangers in the game. Sometimes, that's all you need, and indeed, the Rangers were able to take a 3-3 tie into a 10th inning.
• Rougned Odor almost homered in the top of the 7th inning. The ball hit off the top of the wall, Giancarlo Stanton misread the ball, fell down, and by the time he was able to recover, Odor had circled the bases and scored. It was ruled a double and a two-base error, but was cool to watch, nonetheless.
• A Daniel Robertson walk later in the inning with the bases loaded got the Rangers even to a 3-3 tie.
• Speaking of Robertson, the Rangers had a chance to plate the go-ahead run in the top of the 9th inning with runners on the corners and only one out. The runner on 3rd was Elvis Andrus, and it looked as if the suicide squeeze play was called. Unfortunately, Daniel Robertson didn't make contact on the bunt attempt, instead electing to pull his bat back. By all other indications on the field, it was on Robertson to somehow make contact with the ball there. Robertson is a guy that is likely playing for a shot to be in consideration for a Spring Training invite in 2015, but he won't earn many brownie points with Ron Washington for that play.
• With two outs in the bottom of the 10th inning and runners on 1st and 2nd, Wash called on Neftali Feliz to relieve Neal Cotts. On a 1-2 pitch, Giancarlo Stanton laced a single to right field that plated the winning run. Honestly, it wasn't even the worst pitch of the at-bat for Feliz. That honor was reserved for the pitch before it, a breaking ball at 82 mph that was left hanging over the plate. It was normally a pitch that a hitter like Stanton will make a pitcher pay for, but he wasn't prepared for it, and simply watched it go by for a strike. Feliz, of course, is trying to reclaim his old magic, but hasn't had his old velocity. When he doesn't have velocity nor any idea where the ball is going when he releases it, things tend to end poorly, and tonight was an example of just that. Part of me still wants to see if another offseason will give Feliz some of his velocity back, but right now, I think we're looking at a pitcher that, unless he makes some major changes to his repertoire, isn't going to be incredibly effective as a high-leverage reliever going forward.