Was the Platoon Play the Right Call?

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The Rangers lost a one-run game last night, 4-3 against the Cleveland Indians at home. It was a game Texas had a chance to win at the end.

Down 4-2, Nomar Mazara led off the bottom of the ninth inning with a double, followed by a Mike Napoli RBI double that came mere feet from clearing the center field wall to tie the game. So down a run with no outs and a man on second base, Texas had Rougned Odor, Ryan Rua, and Joey Gallo due up. The prevailing thought, at least in my mind, was that at least one of these guys could get a hit, maybe more.

Rougned Odor ended up striking out on eight pitches, and then manager Jeff Banister made a decision that, according to my Twitter timeline both during and since the game, wasn't very well-liked. He pinch-hit Jurickson Profar for Rua.

It seems that many felt that letting the righty Rua remain in the game would have been a more prudent decision at the time as opposed to getting Profar up as a left-handed bat. And to a certain extent, I get it: While the exact difficulty isn't very well agreed upon, the idea that hitters perform worse coming off the bench than hitters already in the game is backed up by a strong history to prove it. Furthermore, in an era of more specialized bullpens, it's entirely possible that the penalty is even more severe than back in the good ol' days.

And yet, I can't help but think that, despite the ensuing Profar strikeout on a pitch that could have -- maybe should have -- been called a ball, the reasoning behind Banister's decision was sound.

First, let's consider that Cleveland closer Cody Allen is a right-handed pitcher. In 2016, he faced 124 left-handed hitters and 140 right-handed hitters. The lefties posted up a wOBA 70 points higher than the righties at .292. If we want to put an even finer point on it, opponent slugging percentage was 112 points higher at .382 when the hitter was standing in the left-handed box. That's not nothing, nor is it exactly insignificant.

Moving back over to the Rangers, let's consider Ryan Rua for a moment. Without even considering who you're pinch-hitting for him, it's important to determine, "Should you consider pinch-hitting for him?"

In 2016, Rua took 116 plate appearances against lefties, 153 against righties. Maybe not the largest sample size, but it's the most recent "large" sample we have to work with here. The results? A .337 wOBA against the left-handers and .301 against right-handers. Translated to wRC+ -- where 100 is league average -- that comes in at 107 and 82, respectively. The gap is at least significant. So we have our answer to the question. Yes, maybe you should consider pinch-hitting for Ryan Rua in a late-game situation when it necessitates a platoon advantage.

Enter Jurickson Profar. Profar was abysmal against left-handed pitching in 2016, posting up a wOBA of .212 (wRC+ 21). That's of no consequence at this point in the exercise. The pitcher he was coming in to face was a right-hander, and Profar -- batting out of the left-handed box as a lefty -- put up a .322 wOBA (wRC+ of 97) in 2016 in 231 such plate appearances. So yes, Profar profiles as a guy who should hit right-handed pitching better than Ryan Rua.

And when you're attempting to tie or win a game, you take any advantage you can get, which is exactly what Jeff Banister did. Now, to argue the finer point of whether or not Profar's "pinch hit penalty" was significant enough that Ryan Rua should have hit for himself in that situation is another matter entirely. But on the surface, taking the platoon advantage was probably the right call, even if it didn't work out.

When you play the laws of averages and flip a coin 100 times, you'd expect it to come up heads 50 times and tails 50 times. You wouldn't necessarily expect those to occur one by one in sequence.

So, while I've been one of the more vocal critics of Jeff Banister in the past -- mostly regarding his bullpen usage last season -- I can't really fault him for playing the odds in the second game of 162. It just didn't work out this time.

September 7

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You folks know me, by now.  I'm the guy who keeps posting stats and trend lines of stats saying things like Derek Holland isn't actually a very good pitcher anymore, Tony Barnette is, and Delino Deshields, Jr. shouldn't be a starting Outfielder.

I also haven't been shy about saying that I don't think the Rangers are going to do so great this year, although that was mostly before they made some good moves to bolster the pitching staff down the line.  Other moves I wasn't too thrilled with, but most of my analysis was based on the idea that, as far as I can tell, the Rangers have been very lucky the last two years.  And luck isn't quantifiable.

Having said all that...chill out, people.  In the era of Double Wild Card Wildness, which has worked out for MLB beyond their wildest dreams, you can't eliminate any but the worst teams until well after the All Star break.  Hell, trading away some of your best players before the trade deadline hasn't kept teams from contending for another six weeks, at least twice now.

All of us want the Rangers to relive 2011, without the oops.  We want Texas to run away and hide like Lewis Hamilton on pole, making the clear statement that the season is theirs to have; at least until the playoffs.

That's not going to happen.  Even when it *feels* like it happens (the 2012 Rangers were talked about as one of the best teams in baseball history for a while, remember?), it doesn't *actually* happen.  The most wins in MLB history is still 116, and in the modern era that means your team loses 7 times per month.  That's a week.  The Rangers would spend A WHOLE WEEK losing baseball games every month, to be tied with the best in history.

That's a lot of losing.  Or is it?  Perspective is an asshole.

September 7, 2017.  Going into this off day, the Rangers will have played 140 games, if I counted right.  The preceding two weeks of games will have been against the Angels, A's, Houston, and Atlanta.  That should give them a span of games that will either pad their record, cover some deficiencies, or expose the rotten core.  I think we'll know on September 7th what the Rangers' season will look like.

And not a day before.

Yu Darvish, and the Myth of "It"

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We're one game into the season, and the overreaction train is already rolling. And yet, it's not a mere fan providing us with a juicy piece of ridiculous, it's a journalist who is actually paid to write and talk about sports by various media outlets.

In case you missed it, the Texas Rangers fell on Opening Night to the Cleveland Indians 8-5. This was after the Texas offense lit up Corey Kluber for five runs and gave starting pitcher Yu Darvish a 5-1 lead that he and the bullpen proceeded to cough up. And apparently, that was enough for one Mac Engel.

That's right, everyone's favorite Randy Galloway protege is back in the saddle with another spot-on impersonation of his former mentor, channeling the deepest pits of absurd to tell us that, one game in, he's seen enough. And Yu Darvish needs to be traded right now.

Engel makes a point to say that, no it wasn't just one game that has him convinced of this. It's that Darvish will be a free agent at season's end and will command more money than the Rangers should give him.

"Despite all of Yu’s power and his ability to throw a variety of pitches, he’s simply not worth another crippling contract he will command as a free agent, which he will be in the offseason. And given JD’s recent history with big contracts (Prince Fielder, Shin Soo Choo, Elvis Andrus), the franchise cannot afford to be wrong again."

Prince Fielder came up with an injury that no one could have predicted. Choo has been hot and cold. So I'll grant those two as deals that probably don't like so great in hindsight. But Elvis Andrus? The player who only just made $15 million per season each in 2015 and 2016, and is making that same amount in 2017? That's hardly what I would consider a "big" contract in today's game.

"After watching Yu Darvish make his first ever MLB Opening Day (night) start it’s enough to know they should trade him. Get something now while you can, because we have seen enough to know our Yu."

This, I think, is the crux of the problem. We're one game in, and Mac has already determined the season is lost. Good luck going to Adrian Beltre, the player you just signed to an extension last season, and telling him that, after one game in the 2017 season, you're prepared to blow it all up. Do you think Mike Napoli and Carlos Gomez will be terribly thrilled? I'm guessing not. And no, baseball clubs aren't meant to cater specifically to players, but when part of your pitch is that you're going to make every effort to compete, you don't throw in the towel after one game of 162.

All of this before considering that dealing Yu now might be significantly harder to do than it will be near the trade deadline. At that point, Texas has a better idea where the team stands, and other organizations have an idea of getting that one extra pitcher to put them over the top. You just don't trade top-of-the-rotation pitchers in April.

Perhaps most troubling is the notion that, even if this team can contend, they don't have "it" to win the World Series.

"Even with Yu these Rangers are not a World Series team. They are a playoff-contending team, which can no longer be the gold standard in Arlington."

If we accept this statement as the gospel, we're ignoring simple history. A history that tells us that getting in is half the battle. From there, you just hope to put together a string of good outings in the playoffs.

In fact, the Rangers have fallen victim to one such team. It's not hard to remember the 2011 St. Louis Cardinals. That season, the Cardinals clinched a Wild Card berth on the final day of the season, then proceeded to roll through the 102-win Phillies with a pitching staff that featured Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, Cole Hamels, and Roy Oswalt on the way to the World Series. Once there, despite Texas being heavily favored, well... I think you know what happens next.

As a fan, we build up so much to the first game of the season, so yeah, it pisses us off when our team loses the way the Rangers did on Monday. It's going to happen many more times during the season. And if we're being honest, had Yu's outing happened in the middle of June as opposed to, say, Opening Night, we're probably less on edge about it.

Even the great Clayton Kershaw, who many consider to be the best pitcher in the game today, gave up five runs in a game last season. It happens. But it doesn't mean it's time to throw in the towel.

As one final point, Mac made a reference to Yu's personality.

"He has doggedly worked at creating zero sentimental value to the community or the franchise. Since his arrival he has not had a single moment to which a fan, or a teammate, would attach their hearts."

It might be that I'm reading too much into the reference to the community, but it doesn't take more than a simple Google search to uncover at least one instance of Darvish active in the community. And that's if we operate under the assumption that it's a professional athlete's responsibility. Sure, it's nice that some do, but I've no idea what it has to do with trading the man.

Proclaiming that he's not had a single moment to which a teammate would attach their hearts? It's a bold statement, and one that there's simply no way to back up. But by all means, let's jump on the hyperbole train.

No, Yu Darvish wasn't stellar on Monday night. He wasn't stellar in his ALDS start in October either. Despite that, it's not time to blow up the roster one game into the 2017 season. There's no magical "It" factor. Sometimes pitchers just have bad games.

The Rangers Are 0-1

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Well, book it. The Texas Rangers will go 0-162 this season.

  • OK, no they almost certainly won't, barring another record-setting season in a fashion none of us want to see.
     
  • Early on, Yu Darvish was a mixed bag. He came out in the first inning with strong offerings, but an odd four-pitch walk to Francisco Lindor left many fans on Twitter questioning the pitch selection as all four pitches were below the strike zone.
     
  • He got out of that inning with strikeouts of Michael Brantley and Edwin Encarnacion. Darvish ended up giving up four walks on only four strikeouts in what turned out to be a less-than-normal start for the Texas ace.
     
  • As for the offense, Rougned Odor belted two home runs that accounted for four of the five Texas runs. The other came courtesy of a Carlos Gomez bomb that landed in the second deck of the left field porch.
     
  • Other than that, the stats would seem to indicate that the Rangers bats were cold. Elvis Andrus and Nomar Mazara each had a double, Andrus later added a triple, but not much else to speak of. However, there were many hard-hit balls against Corey Kluber that simply went straight to Cleveland infielders. The results weren't there, but the process was sound. Those sort of things average out over a 162-game season.
     
  • Speaking of process, Joey Gallo had some solid plate appearances on the night. He had an 8-pitch strikeout in the third inning, a nine-pitch walk in the sixth inning, and another 8-pitch strikeout in the ninth inning. Again, the results weren't there, but the approach appeared to be mostly sound, and could bode well for things to come should he stick with it.
     
  • The bullpen was the focus of the night, at least to me. Matt Bush came into the game to relieve Darvish in the seventh, and ended up pitching the eighth as well. He gave up one hit, a home run to Rangers nemesis Edwin Encarnacion, and the game was tied.
     
  • Heading into the ninth, Jeff Banister handed the ball to Sam Dyson. After a solid showing at the WBC, expectations were high, but Dyson's sinker simply wasn't working, and his pitches ended up hanging high in the zone. The result? Four hits, three runs (all earned), and a loss.
     
  • For those that followed Sam Dyson's struggles in the second half of last season, tonight wasn't so much surprising as much as, well, that happens with Sam from time to time. No, he's not Andrew Miller. But he's not as awful as his current 40.50 ERA would suggest.
     
  • They'll do it all again tomorrow as Martin Perez takes the hill for Texas.